![]() ![]() Since the 1960s, one indicator of a looming recession has been the New York Fed’s recession probability index breaking 30%. In the meantime, here are four signals worth paying attention to. ![]() Randy Watts, chief investment strategist at William O’Neil & Co, tells Fortune that projected S&P 500 double-digit earnings growth next year and Fed rate cuts are variables that, “if they break positively, …there’s even a chance the economy could re-accelerate.” To be sure, even those that acknowledge that there are worrisome signs aren’t necessarily predicting that a recession is imminent, or even inevitable. In fact, perpetuating trade protectionism is the “number one issue” fueling business uncertainty, says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst. ![]() Although President Trump announced a pseudo-truce with China, experts are seeing negative implications for businesses and the economy alike. In addition to the indicators themselves, there’s a growing sense that the trade war is long from over, which is weighing on many. But one thing is indisputable: several recession warning signals are already flashing. Experts are debating whether a recession is in the cards for 2020 ( Fortune reported that 60% of economists think so), or if this expansion has room to run. ![]()
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